← Wallets
+$609Yes · avg 87¢ → 91.5¢ · $12.4k
What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 0 of 1. The prices it paid implied about 0.6 wins, so it did -60.0 pts worse than the market expected. That's only 1 graded bet, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Current positions
Live from Polymarket (largest 8 open). P&L is unrealised, at today's price.
Price-adjusted edge
-60.0 pts
Called / graded
0/1
Expected from price
0.6
Flagged volume
$141.6k
Sample size1 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±49.0 pts std. error.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
+$27.9k
Last 30 days +$973 · $2.78M volume · 2,052 trades · since Mar 05, 19:00 EST
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L
+$40.7k
Open P&L · 22 positions
−$11.2k
Closed-position win rate
80%
96 closed
Wallet age · markets
233d
108 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Economy | 1 | 0 | 0.6 | -60.0 pts |
History
| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting? | LOW BUY No @ 60¢ | $12.0k | missed |
 Will Karen Bass & Spencer Pratt advance to the second round of the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? | LOW BUY No @ 98.7¢ | $19.7k | excluded |
 MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? | LOW BUY No @ 99.1¢ | $40.1k | excluded |
 US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026? | LOW BUY No @ 99.7¢ | $69.8k 2.3× usual |
excluded |
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