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What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 0 of 1. The prices it paid implied about 0.1 wins, so it did -7.0 pts worse than the market expected. That's only 1 graded bet, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Price-adjusted edge
-7.0 pts
Called / graded
0/1
Expected from price
0.1
Flagged volume
$77.3k
Sample size1 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±25.4 pts std. error.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
+$1,130
Last 30 days −$1,789 · $447.6k volume · 275 trades · since Apr 03, 20:00 EDT
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L
+$5,845
Open P&L · 5 positions
−$4,691
Closed-position win rate
75%
40 closed
Wallet age · markets
205d
45 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Other | 1 | 0 | 0.1 | -7.0 pts |
History
| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? | LOW SELL Yes @ 98.6¢ | $13.6k | excluded |
 US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | LOW BUY No @ 87¢ | $13.9k | called |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | LOW SELL No @ 91¢ | $15.7k | missed |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | LOW BUY No @ 88¢ | $13.3k | called |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | LOW SELL No @ 87¢ | $10.4k | missed |
 Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 31? | LOW SELL Yes @ 93¢ | $10.5k | missed |
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