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0x9631…89a1

Directional Polymarket profile ↗ Backtest Alert me
What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 0 of 2. The prices it paid implied about 0.1 wins, so it did -6.1 pts worse than the market expected. That's only 2 graded bets, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →

Current positions

Live from Polymarket (largest 8 open). P&L is unrealised, at today's price.

Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $75 in October?+$709No · avg 93.7¢ → 98.9¢ · $13.7kStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by November 30?+$28No · avg 94.2¢ → 94.5¢ · $7,761Will Francis James Allison Oyague win the next Lima mayoral elections?+$91No · avg 96.7¢ → 98.6¢ · $4,767Will Anthropic have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026?+$236No · avg 68¢ → 73¢ · $3,871Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in October?+$36No · avg 96.8¢ → 98.1¢ · $2,675Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in October?+$37No · avg 95¢ → 96.6¢ · $2,272Will SpaceX have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026?−$57Yes · avg 68¢ → 64¢ · $933
Price-adjusted edge
-6.1 pts
Called / graded
0/2
Expected from price
0.1
Flagged volume
$161.3k
Sample size2 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±17.0 pts std. error.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
+$66.0k
Last 30 days +$3,679 · $4.31M volume · 5,484 trades · since Nov 25, 19:00 EST

All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.

Polymarket profile

all trades, not just flags · public Data API
Realized P&L
+$64.4k
Open P&L · 8 positions
+$1,278
Closed-position win rate
82%
308 closed
Wallet age · markets
334d
312 markets traded

By category

CategoryGradedCalledExpectedEdge
Other200.1-6.1 pts

History

MarketFlagSizeImplied oddsWhenResult
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 15?LOW BUY No @ 97.8¢ $10.7k98% 82d agoexcluded
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 7?LOW SELL No @ 99.9¢ $11.5k0% 108d agoexcluded
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 7?LOW BUY No @ 98.1¢ $13.3k98% 115d agoexcluded
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?LOW SELL Yes @ 55¢ $21.7k45% 121d agocalled
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?LOW BUY Yes @ 48¢ $20.2k48% 121d agomissed
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?MED SELL No @ 93.7¢ $43.6k
3.3× usual
6% 121d agomissed
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?LOW SELL No @ 94¢ $17.4k6% 161d agomissed
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in April?LOW SELL No @ 99.6¢ $10.4k0% 177d agoexcluded
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7?LOW SELL No @ 97.2¢ $12.6k3% 205d agoexcluded
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 15?excluded
BUY No @ 97.8¢$10.7k
LOW 0x9631…89a1 · 82d ago
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 7?excluded
SELL No @ 99.9¢$11.5k
LOW 0x9631…89a1 · 108d ago
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 7?excluded
BUY No @ 98.1¢$13.3k
LOW 0x9631…89a1 · 115d ago
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?called
SELL Yes @ 55¢$21.7k
LOW 0x9631…89a1 · 121d ago
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?missed
BUY Yes @ 48¢$20.2k
LOW 0x9631…89a1 · 121d ago
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?missed
SELL No @ 93.7¢$43.6k
MED 0x9631…89a1 · 121d ago
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?missed
SELL No @ 94¢$17.4k
LOW 0x9631…89a1 · 161d ago
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in April?excluded
SELL No @ 99.6¢$10.4k
LOW 0x9631…89a1 · 177d ago
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7?excluded
SELL No @ 97.2¢$12.6k
LOW 0x9631…89a1 · 205d ago

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