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+$220No · avg 88¢ → 90¢ · $17.2k+$39No · avg 90.2¢ → 90.5¢ · $11.3k−$32No · avg 78¢ → 76¢ · $2,183−$60Yes · avg 37¢ → 35¢ · $1,187+$33No · avg 88¢ → 91.5¢ · $876−$434Yes · avg 36¢ → 9¢ · $147−$5Yes · avg 12¢ → 12¢ · $115+$7Pistons · avg 41¢ → 46¢ · $68
What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 1 of 1. The prices it paid implied about 0.1 wins, so it did +92.0 pts better than the market expected. That's only 1 graded bet, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Current positions
Live from Polymarket (largest 8 open). P&L is unrealised, at today's price.
Price-adjusted edge
+92.0 pts
Called / graded
1/1
Expected from price
0.1
Flagged volume
$170.3k
Sample size1 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±27.1 pts std. error.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
−$745
Last 30 days +$267 · $4.31M volume · 7,895 trades · since Oct 12, 20:00 EDT
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L · recent 500 closed
+$21.5k
Open P&L · 9 positions
−$233
Closed-position win rate
58%
500 closed
Wallet age · markets
377d
527 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Other | 1 | 1 | 0.1 | +92.0 pts |
History
| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th? | LOW SELL No @ 97.4¢ | $43.8k 3.1× usual |
excluded |
 US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? | LOW SELL No @ 92¢ | $12.8k | called |
 Netanyahu out by March 31? | LOW SELL No @ 99¢ | $44.6k 3.1× usual |
excluded |
| Netanyahu out by March 31? | LOW SELL No @ 98.9¢ | $18.2k | excluded |
 US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026? | LOW SELL No @ 80¢ | $12.5k | excluded |
| US strikes Iran by February 22, 2026? | LOW SELL No @ 99.9¢ | $15.9k | excluded |
| US strikes Iran by February 21, 2026? | LOW SELL No @ 98.7¢ | $11.4k | excluded |
| US strikes Iran by February 18, 2026? | LOW SELL No @ 99¢ | $11.1k | excluded |
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