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What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 0 of 1. The prices it paid implied about 0.3 wins, so it did -27.4 pts worse than the market expected. That's only 1 graded bet, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Price-adjusted edge
-27.4 pts
Called / graded
0/1
Expected from price
0.3
Flagged volume
$168.8k
Sample size1 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±44.6 pts std. error.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
−$478.6k
Last 30 days +$0 · $15.93M volume · 3,293 trades · since Apr 12, 20:00 EDT
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L
+$84.6k
Open P&L · 108 positions
−$567.3k
Closed-position win rate
70%
84 closed
Wallet age · markets
925d
186 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Other | 1 | 0 | 0.3 | -27.4 pts |
History
| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? | LOW BUY No @ 84¢ | $35.6k | excluded |
 US government shutdown Saturday? | MED BUY No @ 27¢ | $25.7k | missed |
 Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025? | MED SELL No @ 85¢ | $52.4k | excluded |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025? | MED BUY No @ 90.8¢ | $55.1k | excluded |
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JSON: /api/v1/wallet/0x8de0ee…