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Momotarou

Directional Polymarket profile ↗ Backtest Alert me
What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 2 of 2. The prices it paid implied about 1.2 wins, so it did +39.0 pts better than the market expected. That's only 2 graded bets, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Price-adjusted edge
+39.0 pts
Called / graded
2/2
Expected from price
1.2
Flagged volume
$38.2k
Sample size2 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±34.5 pts std. error.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
+$9,301
Last 30 days −$21 · $1.35M volume · 173 trades · since Nov 13, 19:00 EST

All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.

Polymarket profile

all trades, not just flags · public Data API
Realized P&L
+$64.6k
Open P&L · 8 positions
−$55.0k
Closed-position win rate
53%
32 closed
Wallet age · markets
710d
39 markets traded

By category

CategoryGradedCalledExpectedEdge
Sports221.2+39.0 pts

History

MarketFlagSizeImplied oddsWhenResult
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-03-01?LOW BUY Yes @ 63¢ $13.0k63% 236d agocalled
Lakers vs. WarriorsLOW BUY Lakers @ 60¢ $13.4k60% 237d agoexcluded
Heat vs. 76ersLOW BUY 76ers @ 59¢ $11.8k59% 239d agocalled

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JSON: /api/v1/wallet/0x8cc8b1…