0x8b71…8044

Directional Polymarket profile ↗ Backtest Alert me

What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 1 of 3. The prices it paid implied about 1.4 wins, so it did -13.0 pts worse than the market expected. That's only 3 graded bets, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →

Current positions

Live from Polymarket (largest 8 open). P&L is unrealised, at today's price.

Trump out as President before 2027?+$6,966No · avg 85¢ → 95.8¢ · $63.6k US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31?+$5,386No · avg 80¢ → 96.5¢ · $31.2k Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?+$2,038No · avg 90.1¢ → 97.8¢ · $26.1k Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026?+$714No · avg 94.1¢ → 97.5¢ · $20.1k Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026?+$885No · avg 88¢ → 93.5¢ · $16.0k Will Trump pardon Ghislaine Maxwell by end of 2026?+$723No · avg 90.9¢ → 97.2¢ · $11.2k Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?+$1,229No · avg 77¢ → 94.5¢ · $6,636 Will Trump pardon Sam Bankman-Fried before 2027?+$113No · avg 94.6¢ → 96.7¢ · $5,219

Price-adjusted edge

-13.0 pts

Called / graded

1/3

Expected from price

1.4

Flagged volume

$39.2k

Sample size3 graded · too small to judge skill

We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±27.4 pts std. error.

Lifetime P&L on Polymarket

+$59.2k

Last 30 days +$2,160 · $4.94M volume · 2,551 trades · since Nov 02, 19:00 EST

All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.

Polymarket profile

all trades, not just flags · public Data API

Realized P&L

+$494.7k

Open P&L · 127 positions

−$406.0k

Closed-position win rate

100%

50 closed

Wallet age · markets

356d

214 markets traded

By category

Category	Graded	Called	Expected	Edge
Other	2	0	0.9	-44.0 pts
Sports	1	1	0.5	+49.0 pts

History

Market	Flag	Size	Implied odds	When	Result
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	LOW BUY Yes @ 26¢	$14.1k	26%	229d ago	missed
Spread: Seahawks (-4.5)	LOW BUY Seahawks @ 51¢	$12.8k	51%	258d ago	called
US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026?	LOW BUY No @ 62¢	$12.4k	62%	261d ago	missed

Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?missed

BUY Yes @ 26¢$14.1k

LOW 0x8b71…8044 · 229d ago

Spread: Seahawks (-4.5)called

BUY Seahawks @ 51¢$12.8k

LOW 0x8b71…8044 · 258d ago

US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026?missed

BUY No @ 62¢$12.4k

LOW 0x8b71…8044 · 261d ago

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