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What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 2 of 3. The prices it paid implied about 1.5 wins, so it did +16.1 pts better than the market expected. That's only 3 graded bets, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Price-adjusted edge
+16.1 pts
Called / graded
2/3
Expected from price
1.5
Flagged volume
$163.0k
Sample size3 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±19.6 pts std. error.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
−$2,994
Last 30 days −$0 · $1.80M volume · 2,611 trades · since Nov 16, 19:00 EST
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L
−$2,994
Open P&L · 0 positions
+$0
Closed-position win rate
84%
186 closed
Wallet age · markets
342d
181 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sports | 1 | 1 | 0.5 | +46.5 pts |
| Other | 2 | 1 | 1.0 | +0.8 pts |
History
| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? | LOW SELL Yes @ 46¢ | $11.5k | called |
 Spurs vs. Timberwolves | LOW BUY Timberwolves @ 97.3¢ | $15.6k | excluded |
| Raptors vs. Cavaliers | LOW BUY Cavaliers @ 99.7¢ | $16.0k | excluded |
 Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? | LOW SELL No @ 99.8¢ | $50.3k 3.4× usual |
excluded |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? | LOW BUY No @ 89¢ | $14.9k | called |
 US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026? | LOW SELL No @ 99.3¢ | $14.9k | excluded |
| Heat vs. Raptors | LOW SELL Raptors @ 99.9¢ | $16.7k | excluded |
 Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? | LOW SELL No @ 95.7¢ | $11.7k | missed |
 Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31? | LOW BUY No @ 94¢ | $11.4k | called |
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JSON: /api/v1/wallet/0x8b24a5…