Hugo459440

Directional Polymarket profile ↗ Backtest Alert me

What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 1 of 1. The prices it paid implied about 0.8 wins, so it did +22.4 pts better than the market expected. That's only 1 graded bet, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →

Current positions

Live from Polymarket (largest 8 open). P&L is unrealised, at today's price.

Will USD/BRL hit 7 (High) in 2026?−$27No · avg 96¢ → 90.8¢ · $484 Will GBP/USD hit 1.00 (Low) in 2026?−$5No · avg 96.8¢ → 95.7¢ · $403 Will Chainlink reach $24 in October?−$33No · avg 99¢ → 86¢ · $211 Will Netflix, Inc. (NFLX) hit (HIGH) $105 in October?−$3No · avg 99.7¢ → 98¢ · $151 Will Opendoor Technologies Inc. (OPEN) hit (HIGH) $5.50 in October?−$3No · avg 99.5¢ → 97.4¢ · $147 Will XRP dip to $0.80 in October?−$0No · avg 99¢ → 98.9¢ · $141 Will Dogecoin dip to $0.05 in October?−$4No · avg 99¢ → 96.2¢ · $137 Negative GDP growth in 2026?+$4No · avg 92.2¢ → 97.1¢ · $71

Price-adjusted edge

+22.4 pts

Called / graded

1/1

Expected from price

0.8

Flagged volume

$49.9k

Sample size1 graded · too small to judge skill

We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±41.7 pts std. error.

Lifetime P&L on Polymarket

−$6,327

Last 30 days +$150 · $1.80M volume · 8,873 trades · since Dec 13, 19:00 EST

All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.

Polymarket profile

all trades, not just flags · public Data API

Realized P&L · recent 500 closed

+$27.1k

Open P&L · 66 positions

−$237

Closed-position win rate

100%

500 closed

Wallet age · markets

316d

2217 markets traded

By category

Category	Graded	Called	Expected	Edge
Other	1	1	0.8	+22.4 pts

History

Market	Flag	Size	Implied odds	When	Result
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	LOW SELL No @ 93¢	$20.1k	7%	185d ago	missed
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	LOW BUY No @ 55¢	$11.8k	55%	189d ago	called
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of March?	LOW BUY Yes @ 78¢	$18.0k	78%	209d ago	called

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?missed

SELL No @ 93¢$20.1k

LOW Hugo459440 · 185d ago

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?called

BUY No @ 55¢$11.8k

LOW Hugo459440 · 189d ago

Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of March?called

BUY Yes @ 78¢$18.0k

LOW Hugo459440 · 209d ago

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