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What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 1 of 3. The prices it paid implied about 1.0 wins, so it did +1.3 pts better than the market expected. That's only 3 graded bets, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Price-adjusted edge
+1.3 pts
Called / graded
1/3
Expected from price
1.0
Flagged volume
$44.7k
Sample size3 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±21.8 pts std. error.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
+$12.7k
Last 30 days −$0 · $699.8k volume · 1,370 trades · since Nov 14, 19:00 EST
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L
+$12.7k
Open P&L · 0 positions
+$0
Closed-position win rate
65%
40 closed
Wallet age · markets
344d
34 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Other | 3 | 1 | 1.0 | +1.3 pts |
History
| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? | LOW BUY No @ 70¢ | $12.2k | called |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? | LOW SELL No @ 93¢ | $17.2k | missed |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? | LOW SELL No @ 81¢ | $15.3k | missed |
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