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What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 1 of 2. The prices it paid implied about 0.9 wins, so it did +6.5 pts better than the market expected. That's only 2 graded bets, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Price-adjusted edge
+6.5 pts
Called / graded
1/2
Expected from price
0.9
Flagged volume
$601.0k
Sample size2 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±35.0 pts std. error.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
−$47.4k
Last 30 days +$0 · $4.40M volume · 601 trades · since Apr 06, 20:00 EDT
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L
+$185.4k
Open P&L · 23 positions
−$230.4k
Closed-position win rate
42%
100 closed
Wallet age · markets
201d
116 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sports | 2 | 1 | 0.9 | +6.5 pts |
History
| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 Pistons vs. Cavaliers | LOW BUY Pistons @ 41¢ | $13.0k | missed |
| Timberwolves vs. Spurs | LOW SELL Timberwolves @ 99.9¢ | $53.8k 3.2× usual |
excluded |
| Timberwolves vs. Spurs | LOW BUY Timberwolves @ 19¢ | $10.0k | excluded |
| 76ers vs. Celtics | LOW SELL 76ers @ 99.9¢ | $80.0k 4.7× usual |
excluded |
| Rockets vs. Lakers | LOW SELL Rockets @ 99.9¢ | $52.7k 3.1× usual |
excluded |
| Rockets vs. Lakers | LOW BUY Rockets @ 40¢ | $16.9k | excluded |
| Pistons vs. Magic | LOW SELL Pistons @ 58¢ | $20.0k | called |
| Pistons vs. Magic | LOW BUY Pistons @ 59¢ | $31.7k | missed |
| Pistons vs. Magic | LOW SELL Pistons @ 58¢ | $11.8k | called |
| Nuggets vs. Timberwolves | LOW BUY Nuggets @ 52¢ | $16.3k | excluded |
| Lakers vs. Rockets | LOW SELL Lakers @ 99¢ | $83.8k 5.0× usual |
excluded |
| Lakers vs. Rockets | LOW SELL Lakers @ 26¢ | $14.7k | missed |
| Lakers vs. Rockets | MED BUY Lakers @ 28¢ | $29.3k | called |
| Nuggets vs. Timberwolves | LOW SELL Nuggets @ 54¢ | $11.1k | called |
| Magic vs. Pistons | LOW BUY Magic @ 23¢ | $10.6k | excluded |
| Hawks vs. Knicks | MED SELL Hawks @ 96.1¢ | $50.6k 3.0× usual |
excluded |
| Rockets vs. Lakers | LOW SELL Lakers @ 99.9¢ | $28.5k | excluded |
| Trail Blazers vs. Suns | LOW SELL Trail Blazers @ 99.9¢ | $15.9k | excluded |
| Heat vs. Hornets | LOW BUY Hornets @ 76¢ | $18.6k | excluded |
| Hornets vs. Celtics | LOW SELL Celtics @ 95.8¢ | $16.9k | excluded |
| Trail Blazers vs. Nuggets | LOW SELL Nuggets @ 99.9¢ | $14.7k | excluded |
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