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What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 1 of 1. The prices it paid implied about 0.8 wins, so it did +20.0 pts better than the market expected. That's only 1 graded bet, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Price-adjusted edge
+20.0 pts
Called / graded
1/1
Expected from price
0.8
Flagged volume
$468.1k
Sample size1 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±40.0 pts std. error.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
−$1.26M
Last 30 days +$0 · $39.35M volume · 3,856 trades · since Dec 09, 19:00 EST
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L · recent 500 closed
+$6.85M
Open P&L · 408 positions
−$7.95M
Closed-position win rate
100%
500 closed
Wallet age · markets
318d
908 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sports | 1 | 1 | 0.8 | +20.0 pts |
History
| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverev | MED SELL Alexander Zverev @ 95¢ | $85.6k 4.7× usual |
excluded |
| Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverev | LOW BUY Alexander Zverev @ 82¢ | $74.3k 4.0× usual |
called |
 Spurs vs. Thunder | LOW SELL Spurs @ 62¢ | $38.0k 2.1× usual |
excluded |
| Spurs vs. Thunder | LOW BUY Spurs @ 43¢ | $26.4k | excluded |
| Spurs vs. Thunder | LOW SELL Spurs @ 42¢ | $29.2k | missed |
| Spurs vs. Thunder | LOW BUY Spurs @ 43¢ | $29.8k | called |
 Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Seattle Mariners | LOW BUY Seattle Mariners @ 60¢ | $13.0k | excluded |
| Roland Garros ATP: Matteo Arnaldi vs Stefanos Tsitsipas | LOW BUY Stefanos Tsitsipas @ 68¢ | $15.0k | excluded |
| Philadelphia Phillies vs. San Diego Padres | LOW SELL Philadelphia Phillies @ 99.9¢ | $19.6k | excluded |
 Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-05? | LOW BUY No @ 40¢ | $15.0k | excluded |
 Canadiens vs. Lightning | LOW SELL Canadiens @ 99.9¢ | $11.9k | excluded |
| Lakers vs. Rockets | LOW BUY Rockets @ 61¢ | $19.5k | excluded |
| Spurs vs. Trail Blazers | LOW SELL Spurs @ 99.9¢ | $25.1k | excluded |
| Spurs vs. Trail Blazers | LOW BUY Spurs @ 59¢ | $14.6k | excluded |
| Magic vs. Pistons | LOW SELL Pistons @ 99.9¢ | $17.2k | excluded |
| Magic vs. Pistons | LOW BUY Pistons @ 69¢ | $11.8k | excluded |
 Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-04-21? | LOW BUY Yes @ 80¢ | $11.2k | called |
| Kings vs. Clippers | LOW BUY Clippers @ 54¢ | $11.0k | excluded |
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