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What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 1 of 4. The prices it paid implied about 2.1 wins, so it did -26.5 pts worse than the market expected. That's only 4 graded bets, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Price-adjusted edge
-26.5 pts
Called / graded
1/4
Expected from price
2.1
Flagged volume
$62.2k
Sample size4 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±24.9 pts std. error.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
−$254.8k
Last 30 days −$25.6k · $5.35M volume · 12,976 trades · since Jul 10, 20:00 EDT
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L · recent 500 closed
+$825.2k
Open P&L · 9 positions
−$8,197
Closed-position win rate
100%
500 closed
Wallet age · markets
471d
1748 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sports | 4 | 1 | 2.1 | -26.5 pts |
History
| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 Mexico vs. England: Team to Advance | LOW BUY Mexico @ 50¢ | $13.4k | missed |
| Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? | LOW BUY Yes @ 52¢ | $13.0k | missed |
| Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? | LOW BUY Yes @ 52¢ | $12.0k | excluded |
| Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? | LOW BUY Yes @ 58¢ | $13.6k | missed |
| Will United States win on 2026-06-12? | LOW BUY Yes @ 46¢ | $10.1k | called |
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