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What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 0 of 2. The prices it paid implied about 0.7 wins, so it did -36.1 pts worse than the market expected. That's only 2 graded bets, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Price-adjusted edge
-36.1 pts
Called / graded
0/2
Expected from price
0.7
Flagged volume
$53.9k
Sample size2 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±33.8 pts std. error.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
−$376.9k
Last 30 days +$0 · $3.36M volume · 77 trades · since Feb 23, 19:00 EST
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L
+$51.0k
Open P&L · 36 positions
−$400.6k
Closed-position win rate
29%
14 closed
Wallet age · markets
243d
51 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sports | 2 | 0 | 0.7 | -36.1 pts |
History
| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 Will Real Sociedad de Fútbol win on 2026-08-26? | LOW BUY Yes @ 6.3¢ | $15.0k | excluded |
 Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | MED BUY Yes @ 31¢ | $28.7k | missed |
 Spain vs. Argentina: Team to Advance | LOW BUY Argentina @ 41¢ | $10.1k | missed |
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JSON: /api/v1/wallet/0x82c8ad…