Redlu

Directional Polymarket profile ↗ Backtest Alert me

What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 2 of 2. The prices it paid implied about 1.6 wins, so it did +21.0 pts better than the market expected. That's only 2 graded bets, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →

Current positions

Live from Polymarket (largest 8 open). P&L is unrealised, at today's price.

Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?+$1,787No · avg 92¢ → 97.9¢ · $29.9k Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?+$3,789No · avg 82¢ → 95¢ · $27.8k Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?+$1,667No · avg 74¢ → 97.2¢ · $6,984 Erdoğan out by December 31, 2026?+$226No · avg 91.7¢ → 96.4¢ · $4,679 Trump out as President before 2027?+$210No · avg 85¢ → 95.8¢ · $1,870 Ukraine agrees not to join NATO before 2027? +$71No · avg 82¢ → 94.8¢ · $527

Price-adjusted edge

+21.0 pts

Called / graded

2/2

Expected from price

1.6

Flagged volume

$64.2k

Sample size2 graded · too small to judge skill

We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±27.0 pts std. error.

Lifetime P&L on Polymarket

+$37.1k

Last 30 days +$643 · $326.8k volume · 62 trades · since Oct 27, 20:00 EDT

All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.

Polymarket profile

all trades, not just flags · public Data API

Realized P&L

+$34.8k

Open P&L · 7 positions

+$2,550

Closed-position win rate

96%

28 closed

Wallet age · markets

362d

34 markets traded

By category

Category	Graded	Called	Expected	Edge
Politics	1	1	0.7	+35.0 pts
Other	1	1	0.9	+7.0 pts

History

Market	Flag	Size	Implied odds	When	Result
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?	LOW BUY Yes @ 65¢	$13.3k	65%	206d ago	called
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by February 28, 2026?	LOW BUY No @ 93¢	$11.1k	93%	271d ago	called
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31?	LOW SELL No @ 96.5¢	$17.7k	3%	271d ago	missed
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31?	LOW BUY No @ 77¢	$11.3k	77%	282d ago	called
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31?	LOW BUY No @ 80¢	$10.8k	80%	283d ago	called

Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?called

BUY Yes @ 65¢$13.3k

LOW Redlu · 206d ago

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by February 28, 2026?called

BUY No @ 93¢$11.1k

LOW Redlu · 271d ago

Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31?missed

SELL No @ 96.5¢$17.7k

LOW Redlu · 271d ago

Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31?called

BUY No @ 77¢$11.3k

LOW Redlu · 282d ago

Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31?called

BUY No @ 80¢$10.8k

LOW Redlu · 283d ago

Share this record

<a href="https://whalegrader.com/wallet/0x81e0595440b89dd65b1cedf081a5024ebef7aff6"><img src="https://whalegrader.com/badge/wallet/0x81e0595440b89dd65b1cedf081a5024ebef7aff6.svg" alt="WhaleGrader record"></a>

JSON: /api/v1/wallet/0x81e059…