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What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 0 of 1. The prices it paid implied about 0.9 wins, so it did -90.3 pts worse than the market expected. That's only 1 graded bet, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Price-adjusted edge
-90.3 pts
Called / graded
0/1
Expected from price
0.9
Flagged volume
$163.6k
Sample size1 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±29.6 pts std. error.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
−$47.6k
Last 30 days +$0 · $1.10M volume · 337 trades · since Nov 25, 19:00 EST
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L
+$12.1k
Open P&L · 4 positions
−$59.1k
Closed-position win rate
91%
22 closed
Wallet age · markets
333d
26 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Crypto | 1 | 0 | 0.9 | -90.3 pts |
History
| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 Will Argentina win on 2026-07-03? | LOW BUY Yes @ 95.9¢ | $88.0k 4.9× usual |
excluded |
 Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in January? | LOW SELL No @ 99.3¢ | $11.9k | excluded |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $80,000 in January? | LOW BUY No @ 90.3¢ | $27.7k | missed |
| Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in January? | LOW SELL No @ 98.7¢ | $18.0k | excluded |
| Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in January? | LOW BUY No @ 80¢ | $18.0k | called |
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JSON: /api/v1/wallet/0x8028c8…