0x7c87…9bd4

Directional Polymarket profile ↗ Backtest Alert me

What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 2 of 3. The prices it paid implied about 1.7 wins, so it did +8.6 pts better than the market expected. That's only 3 graded bets, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →

Current positions

Live from Polymarket (largest 8 open). P&L is unrealised, at today's price.

Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?+$10.5kNo · avg 55¢ → 79¢ · $34.0k Insurrection Act invoked by December 31?+$121No · avg 65¢ → 83¢ · $556 Will no one leave the Trump Cabinet before 2027?+$103No · avg 42¢ → 62¢ · $308 Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?+$89Yes · avg 64¢ → 91.5¢ · $296 Will J.B. Pritzker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?−$50Yes · avg 1.7¢ → 1.2¢ · $138 Will the Republicans win the Oregon governor race in 2026?+$15No · avg 72¢ → 83¢ · $110 Will Trump pardon Derek Chauvin before 2027?−$13Yes · avg 5.2¢ → 3.3¢ · $23 Will Howard Lutnick leave the Trump administration before 2027?+$3No · avg 52¢ → 86¢ · $8

Price-adjusted edge

+8.6 pts

Called / graded

2/3

Expected from price

1.7

Flagged volume

$46.6k

Sample size3 graded · too small to judge skill

We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±21.4 pts std. error.

Lifetime P&L on Polymarket

+$52.8k

Last 30 days +$5,789 · $6.98M volume · 7,256 trades · since May 25, 20:00 EDT

All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.

Polymarket profile

all trades, not just flags · public Data API

Realized P&L

+$199.4k

Open P&L · 84 positions

−$142.3k

Closed-position win rate

81%

301 closed

Wallet age · markets

517d

346 markets traded

By category

Category	Graded	Called	Expected	Edge
Politics	2	2	1.6	+18.9 pts
Other	1	0	0.1	-12.0 pts

History

Market	Flag	Size	Implied odds	When	Result
US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026?	LOW SELL No @ 88¢	$12.0k	12%	271d ago	missed
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election?	LOW BUY Yes @ 82¢	$12.9k	82%	404d ago	called
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election?	LOW BUY Yes @ 80¢	$21.7k	80%	414d ago	called

US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026?missed

SELL No @ 88¢$12.0k

LOW 0x7c87…9bd4 · 271d ago

Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election?called

BUY Yes @ 82¢$12.9k

LOW 0x7c87…9bd4 · 404d ago

Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election?called

BUY Yes @ 80¢$21.7k

LOW 0x7c87…9bd4 · 414d ago

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