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What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 1 of 1. The prices it paid implied about 0.9 wins, so it did +13.8 pts better than the market expected. That's only 1 graded bet, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Price-adjusted edge
+13.8 pts
Called / graded
1/1
Expected from price
0.9
Flagged volume
$225.3k
Sample size1 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±34.5 pts std. error.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
−$422.7k
Last 30 days −$8,210 · $9.22M volume · 14,116 trades · since Oct 18, 20:00 EDT
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L · recent 500 closed
+$1.04M
Open P&L · 1 positions
−$4,094
Closed-position win rate
63%
500 closed
Wallet age · markets
736d
492 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Other | 1 | 1 | 0.9 | +13.8 pts |
History
| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 US forces enter Iran by March 31? | LOW SELL No @ 99.9¢ | $81.3k 2.5× usual |
excluded |
 Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of March? | LOW SELL No @ 99.9¢ | $32.9k | excluded |
| US forces enter Iran by March 31? | LOW BUY No @ 98.5¢ | $80.2k 2.4× usual |
excluded |
| Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of March? | LOW SELL No @ 14¢ | $11.2k | called |
| Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of March? | LOW BUY No @ 96¢ | $19.6k | called |
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