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What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 1 of 1. The prices it paid implied about 0.6 wins, so it did +39.0 pts better than the market expected. That's only 1 graded bet, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Price-adjusted edge
+39.0 pts
Called / graded
1/1
Expected from price
0.6
Flagged volume
$132.3k
Sample size1 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±48.8 pts std. error.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
+$19.7k
Last 30 days +$0 · $947.3k volume · 115 trades · since Jun 13, 20:00 EDT
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L
+$72.4k
Open P&L · 20 positions
−$52.3k
Closed-position win rate
64%
33 closed
Wallet age · markets
133d
53 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sports | 1 | 1 | 0.6 | +39.0 pts |
History
| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 Will Spain win on 2026-07-10? | MED SELL Yes @ 89¢ | $38.3k 2.5× usual |
excluded |
| Will Spain win on 2026-07-10? | LOW BUY Yes @ 58¢ | $15.0k | excluded |
| Will Argentina win on 2026-07-07? | LOW BUY Yes @ 65¢ | $20.8k | excluded |
| Will France win on 2026-06-26? | LOW SELL Yes @ 98.2¢ | $19.5k | excluded |
| Will France win on 2026-06-26? | LOW BUY Yes @ 71¢ | $14.1k | excluded |
| Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? | LOW BUY Yes @ 69¢ | $11.7k | excluded |
| Will United States win on 2026-06-19? | LOW BUY Yes @ 61¢ | $12.7k | called |
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