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What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 0 of 1. The prices it paid implied about 0.0 wins, so it did -3.4 pts worse than the market expected. That's only 1 graded bet, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Price-adjusted edge
-3.4 pts
Called / graded
0/1
Expected from price
0.0
Flagged volume
$35.2k
Sample size1 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±18.1 pts std. error.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
+$179
Last 30 days +$0 · $306.9k volume · 456 trades · since Mar 24, 20:00 EDT
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L
+$179
Open P&L · 2 positions
−$0
Closed-position win rate
80%
127 closed
Wallet age · markets
214d
109 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Other | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | -3.4 pts |
History
| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? | LOW SELL No @ 96.6¢ | $11.6k | missed |
 Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting? | LOW BUY Yes @ 98¢ | $11.8k | excluded |
| Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 meeting? | LOW BUY No @ 99.1¢ | $11.9k | excluded |
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JSON: /api/v1/wallet/0x7890df…