← Wallets
−$373Over · avg 51¢ → 50¢ · $40.4k−$1,500Over · avg 50¢ → 48¢ · $28.5k+$150Under · avg 47¢ → 48¢ · $14.2k−$246Under · avg 52¢ → 50¢ · $4,865+$2Under · avg 40¢ → 40¢ · $122
What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 4 of 7. The prices it paid implied about 3.7 wins, so it did +5.0 pts better than the market expected. That's only 7 graded bets, too few to judge. Without its single best bet: -2.7 pts. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Current positions
Live from Polymarket (largest 8 open). P&L is unrealised, at today's price.
Price-adjusted edge
+5.0 pts
Called / graded
4/7
Expected from price
3.7
Flagged volume
$135.7k
Sample size7 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±18.9 pts std. error.
Graded P&L at their stakes
−$22k7 graded bets in the order they resolved · 4 won. Each step is one bet: win pays (1−price)/price × stake, loss costs the stake.
Past graded bets, not a prediction. Information, not advice.
Without their best bet
Leave out the single bet that helped most (Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? at 49¢) and the edge is -2.7 pts. If that falls apart, one bet made the record.
Calibration: won vs price paid
40–60¢
57% vs 52% · n=7
Bar = how often they won. White tick = what the price implied.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
+$204.7k
Last 30 days −$187.7k · $14.47M volume · 25,420 trades · since Jan 06, 19:00 EST
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L · recent 500 closed
+$3.50M
Open P&L · 312 positions
−$1.64M
Closed-position win rate
100%
500 closed
Wallet age · markets
291d
931 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sports | 6 | 3 | 3.2 | -2.5 pts |
| Politics | 1 | 1 | 0.5 | +50.1 pts |
History
| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 United States vs. Belgium: Team to Advance | LOW BUY United States @ 53¢ | $10.6k | missed |
| Mexico vs. England: Team to Advance | LOW BUY England @ 54¢ | $11.0k | called |
| Will Morocco win on 2026-07-04? | LOW BUY Yes @ 55¢ | $12.1k | called |
| Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? | LOW BUY No @ 49¢ | $29.1k 2.4× usual |
missed |
| Will United States win on 2026-06-25? | LOW BUY No @ 50¢ | $15.0k | excluded |
| Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? | LOW BUY No @ 49¢ | $11.4k | called |
| Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 2.5 | LOW BUY Under @ 55¢ | $23.8k | missed |
| Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? | LOW BUY Yes @ 58¢ | $12.1k | excluded |
 Will People’s Party (PPLE) win the most seats in the 2026 Thai legislative election? | LOW BUY No @ 50¢ | $10.6k | called |
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