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What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 0 of 3. The prices it paid implied about 1.9 wins, so it did -63.5 pts worse than the market expected. That's only 3 graded bets, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Price-adjusted edge
-63.5 pts
Called / graded
0/3
Expected from price
1.9
Flagged volume
$68.6k
Sample size3 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±15.3 pts std. error.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
−$14.0k
Last 30 days +$0 · $272.4k volume · 209 trades · since Mar 27, 20:00 EDT
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L
+$7,888
Open P&L · 18 positions
−$4,617
Closed-position win rate
67%
39 closed
Wallet age · markets
211d
56 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Other | 3 | 0 | 1.9 | -63.5 pts |
History
| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? | LOW BUY No @ 96.5¢ | $11.6k | missed |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? | LOW BUY No @ 87¢ | $17.0k | missed |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? | LOW SELL No @ 97.7¢ | $17.0k | excluded |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? | LOW BUY No @ 80¢ | $11.2k | called |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | LOW SELL No @ 93¢ | $11.8k | missed |
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JSON: /api/v1/wallet/0x6e2e99…