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6161friends

Directional Polymarket profile ↗ Backtest Alert me
What this means. We haven't graded any of this wallet's $10k+ bets yet. Information, not advice. How to read this →

Current positions

Live from Polymarket (largest 8 open). P&L is unrealised, at today's price.

Bitcoin all time high by December 31, 2026?+$73No · avg 92.9¢ → 94.8¢ · $3,810Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by December 31?−$91No · avg 90.3¢ → 86¢ · $2,053Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?−$7No · avg 95.8¢ → 95.2¢ · $1,039
Price-adjusted edge
—
Called / graded
0/0
Expected from price
0.0
Flagged volume
$136.3k
Sample size0 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±0.0 pts std. error.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
+$2,700
Last 30 days +$70 · $1.33M volume · 1,760 trades · since Sep 29, 20:00 EDT

All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.

Polymarket profile

all trades, not just flags · public Data API
Realized P&L
+$2,626
Open P&L · 4 positions
−$24
Closed-position win rate
94%
145 closed
Wallet age · markets
391d
149 markets traded

History

MarketFlagSizeImplied oddsWhenResult
Trump out as President by April 30?LOW BUY No @ 99.8¢ $19.5k100% 182d agoexcluded
Trump out as President by April 30?LOW BUY No @ 99.6¢ $14.3k100% 185d agoexcluded
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?LOW BUY Yes @ 99.2¢ $17.2k99% 191d agoexcluded
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?LOW BUY Yes @ 98.7¢ $20.4k99% 192d agoexcluded
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in April?LOW BUY No @ 99.6¢ $14.6k100% 195d agoexcluded
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 in April?LOW BUY No @ 99.6¢ $29.8k100% 205d agoexcluded
Will China invade Taiwan by March 31, 2026?LOW BUY No @ 99.8¢ $10.2k100% 212d agoexcluded
Trump out as President by March 31?LOW BUY No @ 99.7¢ $10.2k100% 213d agoexcluded
Trump out as President by April 30?excluded
BUY No @ 99.8¢$19.5k
LOW 6161friends · 182d ago
Trump out as President by April 30?excluded
BUY No @ 99.6¢$14.3k
LOW 6161friends · 185d ago
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?excluded
BUY Yes @ 99.2¢$17.2k
LOW 6161friends · 191d ago
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?excluded
BUY Yes @ 98.7¢$20.4k
LOW 6161friends · 192d ago
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in April?excluded
BUY No @ 99.6¢$14.6k
LOW 6161friends · 195d ago
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 in April?excluded
BUY No @ 99.6¢$29.8k
LOW 6161friends · 205d ago
Will China invade Taiwan by March 31, 2026?excluded
BUY No @ 99.8¢$10.2k
LOW 6161friends · 212d ago
Trump out as President by March 31?excluded
BUY No @ 99.7¢$10.2k
LOW 6161friends · 213d ago

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