dadadadayazi

Directional Polymarket profile ↗ Backtest Alert me

What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 1 of 1. The prices it paid implied about 0.7 wins, so it did +34.0 pts better than the market expected. That's only 1 graded bet, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →

Current positions

Live from Polymarket (largest 8 open). P&L is unrealised, at today's price.

Will Phantom launch a token by December 31, 2027?+$43No · avg 82¢ → 84¢ · $1,580 Will Nansen launch a token by December 31, 2027?+$66No · avg 75¢ → 86¢ · $540 Will N1 launch a token by June 30, 2027?+$37No · avg 69¢ → 80¢ · $267 Will Arc launch a token by June 30 2027?+$20No · avg 58¢ → 66¢ · $170

Price-adjusted edge

+34.0 pts

Called / graded

1/1

Expected from price

0.7

Flagged volume

$143.4k

Sample size1 graded · too small to judge skill

We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±47.4 pts std. error.

Lifetime P&L on Polymarket

−$6,779

Last 30 days +$710 · $3.66M volume · 5,575 trades · since Sep 24, 20:00 EDT

All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.

Polymarket profile

all trades, not just flags · public Data API

Realized P&L · recent 500 closed

+$34.3k

Open P&L · 448 positions

−$1,919

Closed-position win rate

100%

500 closed

Wallet age · markets

760d

1220 markets traded

By category

Category	Graded	Called	Expected	Edge
Other	1	1	0.7	+34.0 pts

History

Market	Flag	Size	Implied odds	When	Result
Will Trump visit China by May 15?	LOW BUY Yes @ 97¢	$10.9k	97%	166d ago	excluded
US x Iran meeting by April 10, 2026?	LOW SELL No @ 98¢	$12.9k	2%	196d ago	excluded
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7?	LOW BUY Yes @ 94.8¢	$41.4k 2.2× usual	95%	199d ago	excluded
US x Iran ceasefire by April 15?	LOW BUY Yes @ 66¢	$14.9k	66%	199d ago	called
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7?	MED SELL No @ 71¢	$40.3k 2.1× usual	29%	199d ago	excluded
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7?	LOW BUY No @ 98¢	$23.1k	98%	205d ago	excluded

Will Trump visit China by May 15?excluded

BUY Yes @ 97¢$10.9k

LOW dadadadayazi · 166d ago

US x Iran meeting by April 10, 2026?excluded

SELL No @ 98¢$12.9k

LOW dadadadayazi · 196d ago

US x Iran ceasefire by April 7?excluded

BUY Yes @ 94.8¢$41.4k

LOW dadadadayazi · 199d ago

US x Iran ceasefire by April 15?called

BUY Yes @ 66¢$14.9k

LOW dadadadayazi · 199d ago

US x Iran ceasefire by April 7?excluded

SELL No @ 71¢$40.3k

MED dadadadayazi · 199d ago

US x Iran ceasefire by April 7?excluded

BUY No @ 98¢$23.1k

LOW dadadadayazi · 205d ago

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