Reimbroq

Directional Polymarket profile ↗ Backtest Alert me

What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 3 of 4. The prices it paid implied about 3.0 wins, so it did +0.4 pts better than the market expected. That's only 4 graded bets, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →

Current positions

Live from Polymarket (largest 8 open). P&L is unrealised, at today's price.

Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?+$925No · avg 84¢ → 95¢ · $7,910 Ukraine recognizes Russian sovereignty over its territory by December 31, 2026?+$60No · avg 90.9¢ → 98.2¢ · $811

Price-adjusted edge

+0.4 pts

Called / graded

3/4

Expected from price

3.0

Flagged volume

$77.5k

Sample size4 graded · too small to judge skill

We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±19.3 pts std. error.

Lifetime P&L on Polymarket

+$6,793

Last 30 days −$106 · $260.6k volume · 63 trades · since Oct 27, 20:00 EDT

All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.

Polymarket profile

all trades, not just flags · public Data API

Realized P&L

+$23.8k

Open P&L · 4 positions

−$17.0k

Closed-position win rate

100%

25 closed

Wallet age · markets

362d

29 markets traded

By category

Category	Graded	Called	Expected	Edge
Politics	3	2	2.1	-2.1 pts
Other	1	1	0.9	+8.0 pts

History

Market	Flag	Size	Implied odds	When	Result
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	LOW BUY No @ 45¢	$10.6k	45%	128d ago	missed
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	LOW BUY No @ 92¢	$35.0k 2.2× usual	92%	191d ago	called
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?	LOW BUY Yes @ 67¢	$19.0k	67%	206d ago	called
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election?	LOW BUY Yes @ 94.3¢	$12.9k	94%	354d ago	called

Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?missed

BUY No @ 45¢$10.6k

LOW Reimbroq · 128d ago

Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?called

BUY No @ 92¢$35.0k

LOW Reimbroq · 191d ago

Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?called

BUY Yes @ 67¢$19.0k

LOW Reimbroq · 206d ago

Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election?called

BUY Yes @ 94.3¢$12.9k

LOW Reimbroq · 354d ago

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