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What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 3 of 5. The prices it paid implied about 2.6 wins, so it did +8.5 pts better than the market expected. That's only 5 graded bets, too few to judge. Without its single best bet: -1.8 pts. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Price-adjusted edge
+8.5 pts
Called / graded
3/5
Expected from price
2.6
Flagged volume
$95.9k
Sample size5 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±22.3 pts std. error.
Graded P&L at their stakes
−$3705 graded bets in the order they resolved · 3 won. Each step is one bet: win pays (1−price)/price × stake, loss costs the stake.
Past graded bets, not a prediction. Information, not advice.
Without their best bet
Leave out the single bet that helped most (Kings vs. Nets at 50¢) and the edge is -1.8 pts. If that falls apart, one bet made the record.
Calibration: won vs price paid
40–60¢
60% vs 51% · n=5
Bar = how often they won. White tick = what the price implied.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
+$19.4k
Last 30 days +$0 · $18.60M volume · 40,166 trades · since Feb 21, 19:00 EST
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L
−$1,334
Open P&L · 4 positions
−$740
Closed-position win rate
54%
398 closed
Wallet age · markets
245d
376 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sports | 5 | 3 | 2.6 | +8.5 pts |
History
| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 Hawks vs. Knicks | LOW SELL Hawks @ 99.9¢ | $30.0k 2.1× usual |
excluded |
| Spurs vs. Clippers | LOW SELL Spurs @ 47¢ | $16.4k | missed |
| Spurs vs. Clippers | LOW BUY Clippers @ 43¢ | $14.6k | missed |
| Cavaliers vs. Lakers | LOW BUY Lakers @ 54¢ | $10.5k | called |
| Kings vs. Nets | LOW BUY Nets @ 50¢ | $13.8k | called |
| Rockets vs. Magic | LOW SELL Magic @ 43¢ | $10.6k | called |
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JSON: /api/v1/wallet/0x68caba…