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What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 0 of 1. The prices it paid implied about 0.4 wins, so it did -41.7 pts worse than the market expected. That's only 1 graded bet, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Price-adjusted edge
-41.7 pts
Called / graded
0/1
Expected from price
0.4
Flagged volume
$62.5k
Sample size1 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±49.3 pts std. error.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
+$11.7k
Last 30 days −$4,361 · $393.8k volume · 149 trades · since Jul 09, 20:00 EDT
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L
+$40.3k
Open P&L · 2 positions
−$23.5k
Closed-position win rate
33%
3 closed
Wallet age · markets
107d
7 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sports | 1 | 0 | 0.4 | -41.7 pts |
History
| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | LOW BUY Yes @ 60¢ | $11.9k | called |
 Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | LOW BUY Yes @ 42¢ | $15.4k | missed |
| Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | LOW SELL Yes @ 57¢ | $35.1k 2.3× usual |
missed |
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JSON: /api/v1/wallet/0x642ce6…