0x633e…d305

Directional Polymarket profile ↗ Backtest Alert me

What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 0 of 2. The prices it paid implied about 1.0 wins, so it did -50.0 pts worse than the market expected. That's only 2 graded bets, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →

Current positions

Live from Polymarket (largest 8 open). P&L is unrealised, at today's price.

Will Arsenal win the 2026-27 English Premier League (EPL) Championship?+$38Yes · avg 40¢ → 66¢ · $97 Will Morgan Stanley or any of its underwriting affiliates serve as the lead underwriter in OpenAI's initial public offering?Will Morgan Stanley or any of its underwriting affiliates serve as the lead underwriter in OpenAI's initial public offering?+$47Yes · avg 15¢ → 40¢ · $76 Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?−$376Yes · avg 25¢ → 3.5¢ · $61 Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?+$2Yes · avg 89¢ → 96.7¢ · $21 Will anyone insult Donald Trump during the 2026 Emmy Awards?+$9No · avg 48¢ → 93¢ · $18 Will Real Madrid win the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League Championship?−$5Yes · avg 14¢ → 10¢ · $14 Will Darryn Peterson win the 2026-27 NBA Rookie of the Year?−$2Yes · avg 19¢ → 14¢ · $7 Will Kylian Mbappé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?+$2Yes · avg 11¢ → 19¢ · $6 · 0 proven with, 1 against

Price-adjusted edge

-50.0 pts

Called / graded

0/2

Expected from price

1.0

Flagged volume

$36.2k

Sample size2 graded · too small to judge skill

We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±34.8 pts std. error.

Lifetime P&L on Polymarket

−$252.6k

Last 30 days −$3,115 · $4.85M volume · 25,727 trades · since Jul 09, 20:00 EDT

All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.

Polymarket profile

all trades, not just flags · public Data API

Realized P&L · recent 500 closed

+$370.7k

Open P&L · 27 positions

−$418

Closed-position win rate

100%

500 closed

Wallet age · markets

108d

9297 markets traded

By category

Category	Graded	Called	Expected	Edge
Sports	2	0	1.0	-50.0 pts

History

Market	Flag	Size	Implied odds	When	Result
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	LOW SELL Yes @ 59¢	$10.7k	41%	98d ago	missed
France vs. Spain: Team to Advance	LOW BUY France @ 59¢	$14.1k	59%	102d ago	missed
Will Spain win on 2026-07-10?	LOW BUY Yes @ 78¢	$11.4k	78%	106d ago	excluded

Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?missed

SELL Yes @ 59¢$10.7k

LOW 0x633e…d305 · 98d ago

France vs. Spain: Team to Advancemissed

BUY France @ 59¢$14.1k

LOW 0x633e…d305 · 102d ago

Will Spain win on 2026-07-10?excluded

BUY Yes @ 78¢$11.4k

LOW 0x633e…d305 · 106d ago

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