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What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 1 of 2. The prices it paid implied about 1.6 wins, so it did -29.0 pts worse than the market expected. That's only 2 graded bets, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Price-adjusted edge
-29.0 pts
Called / graded
1/2
Expected from price
1.6
Flagged volume
$217.4k
Sample size2 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±28.5 pts std. error.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
−$93.7k
Last 30 days +$0 · $2.79M volume · 374 trades · since Nov 22, 19:00 EST
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L
−$33.2k
Open P&L · 7 positions
−$59.9k
Closed-position win rate
60%
215 closed
Wallet age · markets
337d
217 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sports | 2 | 1 | 1.6 | -29.0 pts |
History
| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 Timberwolves vs. Spurs | LOW BUY Spurs @ 78¢ | $20.0k | excluded |
| Lakers vs. Thunder | LOW SELL Thunder @ 99.9¢ | $11.0k | excluded |
| Timberwolves vs. Nuggets | LOW SELL Nuggets @ 99.9¢ | $22.7k | excluded |
| Timberwolves vs. Nuggets | LOW BUY Nuggets @ 82¢ | $18.5k | called |
| Celtics vs. 76ers | LOW BUY Celtics @ 73¢ | $13.6k | called |
| Rockets vs. Lakers | LOW BUY Rockets @ 68¢ | $14.7k | excluded |
| Timberwolves vs. Nuggets | LOW BUY Nuggets @ 73¢ | $19.7k | excluded |
| Magic vs. Pistons | LOW SELL Magic @ 99.9¢ | $23.2k | excluded |
| Magic vs. Celtics | LOW BUY Magic @ 85¢ | $14.9k | missed |
| Cavaliers vs. Lakers | LOW SELL Lakers @ 99.9¢ | $25.9k | excluded |
| Cavaliers vs. Lakers | LOW BUY Lakers @ 54¢ | $11.7k | excluded |
 Canucks vs. Flames | LOW SELL Flames @ 99.9¢ | $21.6k | excluded |
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JSON: /api/v1/wallet/0x6165ee…