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What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 1 of 2. The prices it paid implied about 1.8 wins, so it did -38.0 pts worse than the market expected. That's only 2 graded bets, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Price-adjusted edge
-38.0 pts
Called / graded
1/2
Expected from price
1.8
Flagged volume
$56.6k
Sample size2 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±23.0 pts std. error.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
−$17.7k
Last 30 days +$0 · $279.7k volume · 124 trades · since May 02, 20:00 EDT
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L
+$7,425
Open P&L · 2 positions
−$27.7k
Closed-position win rate
57%
14 closed
Wallet age · markets
175d
16 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Other | 2 | 1 | 1.8 | -38.0 pts |
History
| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? | LOW BUY No @ 85¢ | $21.5k | excluded |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? | LOW BUY No @ 87¢ | $20.1k | missed |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? | LOW BUY No @ 89¢ | $15.0k | called |
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JSON: /api/v1/wallet/0x609f7f…