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+$251Yes · avg 90.5¢ → 91.5¢ · $22.9k+$20Yes · avg 85¢ → 85¢ · $4,270+$464No · avg 86¢ → 97.5¢ · $3,927−$92No · avg 88¢ → 86¢ · $3,148+$341No · avg 69¢ → 80¢ · $2,415+$144No · avg 88¢ → 95¢ · $1,901−$68Yes · avg 82¢ → 78¢ · $1,619+$215Yes · avg 64¢ → 75¢ · $1,505
What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 1 of 1. The prices it paid implied about 0.7 wins, so it did +33.3 pts better than the market expected. That's only 1 graded bet, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Current positions
Live from Polymarket (largest 8 open). P&L is unrealised, at today's price.
Price-adjusted edge
+33.3 pts
Called / graded
1/1
Expected from price
0.7
Flagged volume
$192.0k
Sample size1 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±47.1 pts std. error.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
+$25.6k
Last 30 days +$696 · $3.11M volume · 6,236 trades · since Jan 24, 19:00 EST
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L
+$36.2k
Open P&L · 32 positions
−$4,255
Closed-position win rate
75%
376 closed
Wallet age · markets
273d
350 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Other | 1 | 1 | 0.7 | +33.3 pts |
History
| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 21? | LOW BUY Yes @ 99.5¢ | $11.9k | excluded |
 Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30? | LOW BUY No @ 99.5¢ | $14.9k | excluded |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31? | LOW SELL No @ 99.8¢ | $51.8k 2.6× usual |
excluded |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31? | LOW BUY No @ 98¢ | $24.5k | excluded |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 15? | LOW SELL No @ 99.9¢ | $25.0k | excluded |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31? | LOW BUY No @ 97.6¢ | $22.4k | excluded |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 15? | LOW BUY No @ 97.7¢ | $11.7k | excluded |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? | LOW BUY No @ 98.9¢ | $19.8k | excluded |
 US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? | LOW BUY Yes @ 67¢ | $10.0k | called |
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