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What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 1 of 2. The prices it paid implied about 0.2 wins, so it did +42.3 pts better than the market expected. That's only 2 graded bets, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Price-adjusted edge
+42.3 pts
Called / graded
1/2
Expected from price
0.2
Flagged volume
$20.0k
Sample size2 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±18.8 pts std. error.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
−$30.0k
Last 30 days +$0 · $1.91M volume · 32 trades · since Apr 01, 20:00 EDT
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L
−$6,974
Open P&L · 4 positions
−$23.0k
Closed-position win rate
56%
9 closed
Wallet age · markets
206d
12 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Other | 2 | 1 | 0.2 | +42.3 pts |
History
| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15? | LOW BUY Yes @ 5.7¢ | $10.0k | missed |
 US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? | LOW BUY Yes @ 9.7¢ | $10.0k | called |
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JSON: /api/v1/wallet/0x5eebc6…