← Wallets
−$50Yes · avg 14¢ → 8.8¢ · $79
What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 0 of 4. The prices it paid implied about 2.1 wins, so it did -52.9 pts worse than the market expected. That's only 4 graded bets, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Current positions
Live from Polymarket (largest 8 open). P&L is unrealised, at today's price.
Price-adjusted edge
-52.9 pts
Called / graded
0/4
Expected from price
2.1
Flagged volume
$66.4k
Sample size4 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±18.3 pts std. error.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
−$39.8k
Last 30 days −$3,983 · $3.07M volume · 1,328 trades · since Nov 20, 19:00 EST
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L
−$15.3k
Open P&L · 52 positions
−$22.6k
Closed-position win rate
28%
179 closed
Wallet age · markets
338d
256 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Other | 2 | 0 | 1.7 | -86.8 pts |
| Sports | 2 | 0 | 0.4 | -18.9 pts |
History
| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | LOW BUY Yes @ 19¢ | $21.5k | missed |
 Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | LOW BUY Yes @ 18¢ | $21.7k | missed |
 US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? | LOW SELL Yes @ 14¢ | $11.2k | missed |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? | LOW SELL Yes @ 12¢ | $12.0k | missed |
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