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What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 1 of 2. The prices it paid implied about 1.0 wins, so it did -0.4 pts worse than the market expected. That's only 2 graded bets, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Price-adjusted edge
-0.4 pts
Called / graded
1/2
Expected from price
1.0
Flagged volume
$39.6k
Sample size2 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±34.7 pts std. error.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
−$12.4k
Last 30 days −$0 · $1.53M volume · 387 trades · since Mar 17, 20:00 EDT
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L
+$36.2k
Open P&L · 21 positions
−$48.6k
Closed-position win rate
38%
73 closed
Wallet age · markets
221d
90 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sports | 2 | 1 | 1.0 | -0.4 pts |
History
| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | LOW SELL Yes @ 40¢ | $13.0k | called |
 Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | LOW SELL Yes @ 59¢ | $26.6k | missed |
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JSON: /api/v1/wallet/0x5aa1ad…