poptree

Directional Polymarket profile ↗ Backtest Alert me

What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 0 of 1. The prices it paid implied about 0.3 wins, so it did -25.1 pts worse than the market expected. That's only 1 graded bet, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →

Current positions

Live from Polymarket (largest 8 open). P&L is unrealised, at today's price.

Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?+$29.6kNo · avg 50¢ → 56¢ · $284.6k Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?−$29.6kYes · avg 50¢ → 44¢ · $225.4k

Price-adjusted edge

-25.1 pts

Called / graded

0/1

Expected from price

0.3

Flagged volume

$75.8k

Sample size1 graded · too small to judge skill

We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±43.4 pts std. error.

Lifetime P&L on Polymarket

+$334.3k

Last 30 days +$0 · $18.26M volume · 7,844 trades · since Jan 16, 19:00 EST

All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.

Polymarket profile

all trades, not just flags · public Data API

Realized P&L · recent 500 closed

+$628.3k

Open P&L · 29 positions

−$10.7k

Closed-position win rate

98%

500 closed

Wallet age · markets

1012d

618 markets traded

By category

Category	Graded	Called	Expected	Edge
Other	1	0	0.3	-25.1 pts

History

Market	Flag	Size	Implied odds	When	Result
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?	MED SELL Yes @ 75¢	$24.9k	25%	131d ago	missed
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	LOW SELL No @ 99.1¢	$24.3k	1%	131d ago	excluded
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28?	LOW BUY Yes @ 97.2¢	$12.2k	97%	237d ago	excluded
New "Stranger Things" episode released by January 31?	LOW BUY No @ 98.5¢	$14.3k	98%	282d ago	excluded

US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?missed

SELL Yes @ 75¢$24.9k

MED poptree · 131d ago

Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?excluded

SELL No @ 99.1¢$24.3k

LOW poptree · 131d ago

Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28?excluded

BUY Yes @ 97.2¢$12.2k

LOW poptree · 237d ago

New "Stranger Things" episode released by January 31? excluded

BUY No @ 98.5¢$14.3k

LOW poptree · 282d ago

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