afkpnlucl

Directional Polymarket profile ↗ Backtest Alert me

What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 0 of 1. The prices it paid implied about 0.8 wins, so it did -84.8 pts worse than the market expected. That's only 1 graded bet, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →

Current positions

Live from Polymarket (largest 8 open). P&L is unrealised, at today's price.

Will Manchester City win the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League Championship?+$3,073Yes · avg 4.5¢ → 7.5¢ · $7,756 Will Liverpool win the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League Championship?+$2,120Yes · avg 1.2¢ → 4.5¢ · $2,908 Will MetaMask launch a token by December 31, 2026?+$41No · avg 70¢ → 94¢ · $162 Opensea FDV above $500M one day after launch?+$60No · avg 58¢ → 92¢ · $160 Will Phantom launch a token by December 31, 2026?+$2No · avg 91¢ → 95.5¢ · $41 Base FDV above $3B one day after launch?+$10No · avg 39¢ → 64¢ · $26 Will Bola Tinubu win the 2027 Nigerian Presidential Election?−$1Yes · avg 71¢ → 68¢ · $19 Extended FDV above $500M one day after launch?+$1No · avg 74¢ → 84¢ · $10

Price-adjusted edge

-84.8 pts

Called / graded

0/1

Expected from price

0.8

Flagged volume

$66.7k

Sample size1 graded · too small to judge skill

We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±35.9 pts std. error.

Lifetime P&L on Polymarket

+$198.5k

Last 30 days −$1,024 · $94.64M volume · 24,371 trades · since May 28, 20:00 EDT

All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.

Polymarket profile

all trades, not just flags · public Data API

Realized P&L

+$198.2k

Open P&L · 38 positions

−$24.1k

Closed-position win rate

35%

189 closed

Wallet age · markets

149d

199 markets traded

By category

Category	Graded	Called	Expected	Edge
Sports	1	0	0.8	-84.8 pts

History

Market	Flag	Size	Implied odds	When	Result
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	LOW SELL Yes @ 15¢	$41.7k 3.0× usual	85%	130d ago	missed
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	LOW SELL Yes @ 8.7¢	$13.8k	91%	136d ago	called
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	LOW BUY Yes @ 8.5¢	$11.1k	8%	136d ago	missed

Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?missed

SELL Yes @ 15¢$41.7k

LOW afkpnlucl · 130d ago

Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?called

SELL Yes @ 8.7¢$13.8k

LOW afkpnlucl · 136d ago

Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?missed

BUY Yes @ 8.5¢$11.1k

LOW afkpnlucl · 136d ago

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