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+$551No · avg 50¢ → 56¢ · $5,427−$551Yes · avg 50¢ → 44¢ · $4,325
What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 1 of 1. The prices it paid implied about 0.1 wins, so it did +95.0 pts better than the market expected. That's only 1 graded bet, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Current positions
Live from Polymarket (largest 8 open). P&L is unrealised, at today's price.
Price-adjusted edge
+95.0 pts
Called / graded
1/1
Expected from price
0.1
Flagged volume
$84.7k
Sample size1 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±21.8 pts std. error.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
−$42.7k
Last 30 days +$0 · $578.3k volume · 503 trades · since May 28, 20:00 EDT
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L
−$37.4k
Open P&L · 4 positions
−$5,290
Closed-position win rate
75%
36 closed
Wallet age · markets
515d
37 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Other | 1 | 1 | 0.1 | +95.0 pts |
History
| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? | LOW BUY No @ 98¢ | $14.8k | excluded |
| US x Iran ceasefire by April 15? | LOW SELL No @ 95¢ | $20.1k | called |
| US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? | LOW SELL No @ 99¢ | $33.1k | excluded |
| US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? | LOW BUY No @ 92¢ | $16.7k | missed |
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JSON: /api/v1/wallet/0x514870…