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Headscratcher

Directional Polymarket profile ↗ Backtest Alert me
What this means. We haven't graded any of this wallet's $10k+ bets yet. Information, not advice. How to read this →

Current positions

Live from Polymarket (largest 8 open). P&L is unrealised, at today's price.

Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election?−$1No · avg 94.8¢ → 87¢ · $11
Price-adjusted edge
—
Called / graded
0/0
Expected from price
0.0
Flagged volume
$27.4k
Sample size0 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±0.0 pts std. error.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
−$588
Last 30 days +$0 · $586.2k volume · 800 trades · since Jul 09, 20:00 EDT

All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.

Polymarket profile

all trades, not just flags · public Data API
Realized P&L
+$19.2k
Open P&L · 17 positions
−$19.8k
Closed-position win rate
91%
131 closed
Wallet age · markets
472d
147 markets traded

History

MarketFlagSizeImplied oddsWhenResult
Will Bitcoin dip to $35,000 in February?LOW BUY No @ 99.8¢ $14.6k100% 241d agoexcluded
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting?LOW BUY Yes @ 98.3¢ $12.8k98% 274d agoexcluded

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