vitamin.eth

Directional Polymarket profile ↗ Backtest Alert me

What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 1 of 1. The prices it paid implied about 1.0 wins, so it did +3.1 pts better than the market expected. That's only 1 graded bet, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →

Current positions

Live from Polymarket (largest 8 open). P&L is unrealised, at today's price.

Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?+$850No · avg 90.6¢ → 94.5¢ · $20.7k · 1 proven with, 0 against Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by November 30?−$38No · avg 95¢ → 94.5¢ · $7,256

Price-adjusted edge

+3.1 pts

Called / graded

1/1

Expected from price

1.0

Flagged volume

$11.1k

Sample size1 graded · too small to judge skill

We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±17.3 pts std. error.

Lifetime P&L on Polymarket

+$11.6k

Last 30 days +$742 · $238.6k volume · 306 trades · since Jan 21, 19:00 EST

All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.

Polymarket profile

all trades, not just flags · public Data API

Realized P&L

+$10.0k

Open P&L · 2 positions

+$812

Closed-position win rate

77%

31 closed

Wallet age · markets

641d

30 markets traded

By category

Category	Graded	Called	Expected	Edge
Other	1	1	1.0	+3.1 pts

History

Market	Flag	Size	Implied odds	When	Result
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?	LOW BUY No @ 96.9¢	$11.1k	97%	206d ago	called

Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?called

BUY No @ 96.9¢$11.1k

LOW vitamin.eth · 206d ago

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