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What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 2 of 3. The prices it paid implied about 1.2 wins, so it did +25.4 pts better than the market expected. That's only 3 graded bets, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Price-adjusted edge
+25.4 pts
Called / graded
2/3
Expected from price
1.2
Flagged volume
$59.1k
Sample size3 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±23.6 pts std. error.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
+$43.2k
Last 30 days −$0 · $1.59M volume · 1,515 trades · since Nov 14, 19:00 EST
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L
+$45.1k
Open P&L · 5 positions
−$1,854
Closed-position win rate
53%
34 closed
Wallet age · markets
344d
37 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sports | 2 | 2 | 1.1 | +43.6 pts |
| Economy | 1 | 0 | 0.1 | -11.0 pts |
History
| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | LOW SELL Yes @ 23¢ | $17.6k | called |
 Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? | LOW BUY Yes @ 35¢ | $21.2k | called |
 No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting? | LOW SELL Yes @ 89¢ | $20.2k | missed |
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JSON: /api/v1/wallet/0x4e20f8…