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What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 2 of 2. The prices it paid implied about 1.8 wins, so it did +11.3 pts better than the market expected. That's only 2 graded bets, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Price-adjusted edge
+11.3 pts
Called / graded
2/2
Expected from price
1.8
Flagged volume
$25.6k
Sample size2 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±22.3 pts std. error.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
+$41.1k
Last 30 days +$0 · $4.82M volume · 5,766 trades · since Apr 19, 20:00 EDT
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L
+$107.5k
Open P&L · 24 positions
−$53.0k
Closed-position win rate
71%
214 closed
Wallet age · markets
553d
213 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Politics | 2 | 2 | 1.8 | +11.3 pts |
History
| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| LOW BUY Yes @ 90¢ | $11.9k | called | |
| LOW BUY Yes @ 87¢ | $13.6k | called |
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JSON: /api/v1/wallet/0x4d73a9…