39192

Directional Polymarket profile ↗ Backtest Alert me

What this means. We haven't graded any of this wallet's $10k+ bets yet. Information, not advice. How to read this →

Current positions

Live from Polymarket (largest 8 open). P&L is unrealised, at today's price.

Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?+$534No · avg 86¢ → 95¢ · $5,608 Will Jesus Christ return before 2027?−$8Yes · avg 2.1¢ → 1.2¢ · $12

Price-adjusted edge

—

Called / graded

0/0

Expected from price

0.0

Flagged volume

$208.0k

Sample size0 graded · too small to judge skill

We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±0.0 pts std. error.

Lifetime P&L on Polymarket

+$4,006

Last 30 days −$84 · $1.05M volume · 644 trades · since Oct 11, 20:00 EDT

All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.

Polymarket profile

all trades, not just flags · public Data API

Realized P&L

+$4,024

Open P&L · 16 positions

−$21

Closed-position win rate

78%

74 closed

Wallet age · markets

743d

84 markets traded

History

Market	Flag	Size	Implied odds	When	Result
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	LOW BUY No @ 99.8¢	$29.9k	100%	146d ago	excluded
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2026 meeting?	LOW SELL No @ 99.5¢	$29.8k	1%	214d ago	excluded
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2026 meeting?	LOW BUY No @ 99.6¢	$29.9k	100%	214d ago	excluded
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on February 28?	LOW BUY Yes @ 99.9¢	$14.0k	100%	238d ago	excluded
US strikes Iran by February 27, 2026?	LOW BUY No @ 96.5¢	$16.4k	96%	240d ago	excluded
US strikes Iran by February 25, 2026?	LOW BUY No @ 98.3¢	$10.8k	98%	241d ago	excluded
US strikes Iran by February 23, 2026?	LOW BUY No @ 98.8¢	$19.8k	99%	243d ago	excluded
US strikes Iran by February 21, 2026?	LOW BUY No @ 98.2¢	$27.5k	98%	245d ago	excluded
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting?	LOW BUY Yes @ 99.7¢	$29.9k	100%	269d ago	excluded

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?excluded

BUY No @ 99.8¢$29.9k

LOW 39192 · 146d ago

Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2026 meeting?excluded

SELL No @ 99.5¢$29.8k

LOW 39192 · 214d ago

Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2026 meeting?excluded

BUY No @ 99.6¢$29.9k

LOW 39192 · 214d ago

Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on February 28?excluded

BUY Yes @ 99.9¢$14.0k

LOW 39192 · 238d ago

US strikes Iran by February 27, 2026?excluded

BUY No @ 96.5¢$16.4k

LOW 39192 · 240d ago

US strikes Iran by February 25, 2026?excluded

BUY No @ 98.3¢$10.8k

LOW 39192 · 241d ago

US strikes Iran by February 23, 2026?excluded

BUY No @ 98.8¢$19.8k

LOW 39192 · 243d ago

US strikes Iran by February 21, 2026?excluded

BUY No @ 98.2¢$27.5k

LOW 39192 · 245d ago

No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting?excluded

BUY Yes @ 99.7¢$29.9k

LOW 39192 · 269d ago

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