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+$2,652Yes · avg 84¢ → 91.5¢ · $32.8k−$17.7kYes · avg 96.2¢ → 9¢ · $1,823
What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 2 of 2. The prices it paid implied about 1.8 wins, so it did +12.1 pts better than the market expected. That's only 2 graded bets, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Current positions
Live from Polymarket (largest 8 open). P&L is unrealised, at today's price.
Price-adjusted edge
+12.1 pts
Called / graded
2/2
Expected from price
1.8
Flagged volume
$25.7k
Sample size2 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±22.3 pts std. error.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
−$15.6k
Last 30 days −$1,271 · $678.2k volume · 213 trades · since Apr 24, 20:00 EDT
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L
−$356
Open P&L · 2 positions
−$15.0k
Closed-position win rate
57%
35 closed
Wallet age · markets
183d
33 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Economy | 1 | 1 | 0.8 | +20.2 pts |
| Other | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | +4.0 pts |
History
| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting? | LOW BUY Yes @ 80¢ | $10.5k | called |
 Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? | LOW BUY No @ 96¢ | $15.2k | called |
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JSON: /api/v1/wallet/0x4c681f…