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What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 1 of 2. The prices it paid implied about 1.9 wins, so it did -44.0 pts worse than the market expected. That's only 2 graded bets, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Price-adjusted edge
-44.0 pts
Called / graded
1/2
Expected from price
1.9
Flagged volume
$22.0k
Sample size2 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±16.8 pts std. error.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
+$13.3k
Last 30 days +$0 · $348.3k volume · 213 trades · since May 04, 20:00 EDT
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L
+$14.4k
Open P&L · 1 positions
−$6
Closed-position win rate
100%
7 closed
Wallet age · markets
173d
8 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Other | 2 | 1 | 1.9 | -44.0 pts |
History
| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? | LOW BUY No @ 93¢ | $10.0k | missed |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? | LOW BUY No @ 95¢ | $12.0k | called |
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JSON: /api/v1/wallet/0x4b305b…