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What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 0 of 1. The prices it paid implied about 0.0 wins, so it did -4.6 pts worse than the market expected. That's only 1 graded bet, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Price-adjusted edge
-4.6 pts
Called / graded
0/1
Expected from price
0.0
Flagged volume
$147.3k
Sample size1 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±20.9 pts std. error.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
−$87.5k
Last 30 days +$0 · $3.01M volume · 14,477 trades · since Dec 15, 19:00 EST
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L
−$85.9k
Open P&L · 3 positions
−$1,113
Closed-position win rate
45%
240 closed
Wallet age · markets
678d
225 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Other | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | -4.6 pts |
History
| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 Netanyahu out by March 31? | LOW SELL No @ 95.4¢ | $11.6k | missed |
 Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? | LOW SELL Yes @ 22¢ | $13.4k | called |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? | MED SELL No @ 77¢ | $47.0k 3.0× usual |
missed |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? | LOW SELL No @ 77¢ | $15.4k | missed |
 Pelicans vs. Lakers | LOW SELL Lakers @ 99.9¢ | $59.9k 3.9× usual |
excluded |
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JSON: /api/v1/wallet/0x4afd56…