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What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 1 of 1. The prices it paid implied about 0.2 wins, so it did +77.4 pts better than the market expected. That's only 1 graded bet, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Price-adjusted edge
+77.4 pts
Called / graded
1/1
Expected from price
0.2
Flagged volume
$15.5k
Sample size1 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±41.8 pts std. error.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
+$126.5k
Last 30 days −$7,978 · $1.18M volume · 2,417 trades · since May 21, 20:00 EDT
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L
+$5,917
Open P&L · 77 positions
−$22.2k
Closed-position win rate
57%
37 closed
Wallet age · markets
157d
107 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Crypto | 1 | 1 | 0.2 | +77.4 pts |
History
| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? | LOW SELL Yes @ 77¢ | $15.5k | called |
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JSON: /api/v1/wallet/0x4834f8…