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What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 4 of 8. The prices it paid implied about 5.1 wins, so it did -13.9 pts worse than the market expected. That's only 8 graded bets, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Price-adjusted edge
-13.9 pts
Called / graded
4/8
Expected from price
5.1
Flagged volume
$113.1k
Sample size8 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±16.5 pts std. error.
Graded P&L at their stakes
−$22k8 graded bets in the order they resolved · 4 won. Each step is one bet: win pays (1−price)/price × stake, loss costs the stake.
Past graded bets, not a prediction. Information, not advice.
Without their best bet
Leave out the single bet that helped most (Thunder vs. Spurs at 57¢) and the edge is -22.0 pts. If that falls apart, one bet made the record.
Calibration: won vs price paid
40–60¢
25% vs 55% · n=4
60–80¢
67% vs 67% · n=3
80–100¢
100% vs 91% · n=1
Bar = how often they won. White tick = what the price implied.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
−$75.3k
Last 30 days +$0 · $1.68M volume · 578 trades · since Feb 23, 19:00 EST
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L
+$141.7k
Open P&L · 23 positions
−$215.4k
Closed-position win rate
64%
89 closed
Wallet age · markets
243d
112 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sports | 8 | 4 | 5.1 | -13.9 pts |
History
| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 Knicks vs. Spurs | LOW BUY Spurs @ 64¢ | $10.0k | missed |
| Thunder vs. Spurs | LOW BUY Spurs @ 57¢ | $11.1k | called |
| Knicks vs. Cavaliers | LOW BUY Cavaliers @ 56¢ | $11.0k | missed |
| Thunder vs. Spurs | LOW BUY Spurs @ 54¢ | $11.1k | missed |
| Cavaliers vs. Knicks | LOW BUY Knicks @ 69¢ | $14.7k | called |
| Spurs vs. Thunder | LOW BUY Thunder @ 68¢ | $13.3k | called |
| Timberwolves vs. Spurs | LOW BUY Spurs @ 78¢ | $17.6k | excluded |
| Knicks vs. 76ers | LOW BUY 76ers @ 52¢ | $12.5k | missed |
| Nets vs. Celtics | LOW BUY Celtics @ 91¢ | $11.7k | called |
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JSON: /api/v1/wallet/0x47f80d…