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What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 0 of 2. The prices it paid implied about 0.6 wins, so it did -30.1 pts worse than the market expected. That's only 2 graded bets, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Price-adjusted edge
-30.1 pts
Called / graded
0/2
Expected from price
0.6
Flagged volume
$30.0k
Sample size2 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±31.1 pts std. error.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
−$15.1k
Last 30 days +$0 · $247.3k volume · 170 trades · since Apr 12, 20:00 EDT
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L
−$15.1k
Open P&L · 0 positions
+$0
Closed-position win rate
20%
5 closed
Wallet age · markets
195d
4 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Politics | 2 | 0 | 0.6 | -30.1 pts |
History
| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? | MED BUY No @ 43¢ | $15.0k | missed |
 Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? | MED SELL No @ 83¢ | $15.0k | missed |
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JSON: /api/v1/wallet/0x47a103…