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What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 1 of 1. The prices it paid implied about 0.6 wins, so it did +45.0 pts better than the market expected. That's only 1 graded bet, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Price-adjusted edge
+45.0 pts
Called / graded
1/1
Expected from price
0.6
Flagged volume
$125.6k
Sample size1 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±49.7 pts std. error.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
+$35.9k
Last 30 days +$0 · $1.03M volume · 249 trades · since Jun 30, 20:00 EDT
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L
+$114.1k
Open P&L · 10 positions
−$77.4k
Closed-position win rate
81%
21 closed
Wallet age · markets
116d
31 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sports | 1 | 1 | 0.6 | +45.0 pts |
History
| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 United States vs. Belgium: Team to Advance | LOW SELL United States @ 28¢ | $10.2k | excluded |
| United States vs. Belgium: Team to Advance | LOW BUY United States @ 53¢ | $19.4k | missed |
| Will Morocco win on 2026-07-04? | LOW BUY Yes @ 55¢ | $20.5k | called |
| Will France win on 2026-06-30? | LOW SELL Yes @ 99.9¢ | $42.4k 2.1× usual |
excluded |
| Will France win on 2026-06-30? | LOW BUY Yes @ 78¢ | $33.1k | called |
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JSON: /api/v1/wallet/0x471d4f…