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What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 1 of 1. The prices it paid implied about 0.8 wins, so it did +20.1 pts better than the market expected. That's only 1 graded bet, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Price-adjusted edge
+20.1 pts
Called / graded
1/1
Expected from price
0.8
Flagged volume
$33.9k
Sample size1 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±40.1 pts std. error.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
+$13.2k
Last 30 days +$0 · $2.34M volume · 72 trades · since Jun 21, 20:00 EDT
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L
+$21.7k
Open P&L · 2 positions
−$8,416
Closed-position win rate
60%
15 closed
Wallet age · markets
490d
17 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sports | 1 | 1 | 0.8 | +20.1 pts |
History
| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | LOW SELL Yes @ 20¢ | $33.9k | called |
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JSON: /api/v1/wallet/0x4621ac…